I have been asked this question many times in the past 6 years, practically since Ahmadinejad first pronounced his not-very-original ‘prophecy’ about the Zionist regime’s (i.e. Israeli regime) eminent disappearance from the face of the earth. The first iteration of this comment came out in October 2005 as a quote from the late Ayatollah Khomeini where he said the regime occupying Jerusalem should be wiped-off the face of the earth. One can easily argue that this was not about Israel as a country, but ‘the occupying forces’—I leave that argument to those who have elaborately discussed it in academia and the media.
My answer to this question has changed a couple of times since then. At this point in time, however, my answer is: Yes. Israel is likely to attack Iran unless the wave of its global loss of legitimacy changes. Three major factors contribute to this thinking: 1. Geopolitics of the Persian Gulf region and broader Middle East, 2. Internal politics of the US, and 3. Major shifts in Israeli foreign and domestic affairs.
The alignment of Israeli and Saudi ambitions for their respective roles in the Middle East combined with US political spectrum demanding tougher language and action on Iran are two very significant reasons why an attack on Iran is very probable. However, the reason this attack will come from Israel (and not the US) is mostly related to the beginning of a major shift away from the recognition of Israel as the perpetual victim.
While the loss of Israeli legitimacy has long been in the making, the combination of the continued siege on Gaza and Obama administration’s short-lived attempts to bring some reason to the Israeli expansionist policies were two significant moments that (further) harmed Israel’s image in the world. The younger Obama administration, in line with Barak’s promises during his campaign, made a few attempts to tame Israeli settlement expansions by publically denouncing them. But Tel Aviv blatantly disregarded them with no hesitation. This might have led to less pointed comments from Obama administration regarding anything Israeli, but many individuals in positions of power (both in the US and other State-sponsors of Tel Aviv)—who have had doubts about how long more they can support Israel’s indefensible acts against peace in that part of the world—seem to have lost hope in brining sanity to Tel Aviv. This shift might not have yet been translated into official policies, but there are signs of it all over the global political discourse.
Two examples of this global shift are Turkey’s suspension of diplomatic ties with Israel and most recently, the granting of full membership to Palestine by UNESCO, a referendum that passed with 107 countries in favour and only 14 against. Turkey is now a major power broker in the Middle East and during the past decade or so has bought itself significant international respect. UNESCO vote might be symbolic, but has left no doubt for the US and other major powers that if the UN governance system was a democratic one (i.e. each Security Council member had one equal vote), Palestine would have been a recognized State and a member of the UN. This would mean that Israeli land grabbing that has been going on for over 40 years (and is still on-going) would be considered an attack on a sovereign country under international law.
The problem the US is now facing regarding Israel (besides internal pressure and the Jewish lobby) is that this beast has been fed a touch too extravagantly and thus is a bit too strong to be left to its own wits. Since the Obama administration was indirectly humiliated by Tel Aviv, it has softened its rhetoric on Israel (which can also be partly due to election related pressures that Obama is giving in to). But what is most significant for Tel Aviv is that the Israeli victimhood narrative is no longer the dominant narrative.
Tel Aviv faces a serious political dilemma in regards to its identity as a victim-State. This can mean much less leverage for Israel in many of its traditionally safe diplomatic relations. The situation of Israel resembles that of a spoiled child who has come of age but continues his/her disturbing, childish behaviour. Aunts and uncles dismiss it for a while as they argue it will get better as s/he grows older. But when the child hits 20-25 but continues the spoiled behaviour, aunts and uncles start losing it one by one. The child may attempt to prove that s/he still deserves the attention, but the adults know that it is time for the child to go into the wild and learn to be an adult. There will always be some who will continue nurturing the spoiled child, but the majority will stop at some point.
Tel Aviv now realizes that its loss of victimhood status is going to cost her many of her State-sponsors. This is threatening Israel’s political existence. To return this dangerous tide, Tel Aviv is feeling pressure to take action towards restoring its victimhood status. Iran, the most radical State-challenger of the State of Israel, is the best scapegoat for Tel Aviv. Iran’s alleged ambitions to acquire nuclear arms capability that has gone unresolved for quite a while now makes Israel hopeful that she won’t face any major resistance if it opts to attack Iran. After all, the security discourse has worked in justifying many recent wars: Afghanistan, Iraq and even the recent invasion of Somali by the Kenyan army.
The so called ‘Iranian nuclear ambitions’ is a helpful starting point for Tel Aviv on the security discourse. Putting together Ahmadinejad’s comments on the “Zionist regime’s eminent disappearance from the face of the earth” and the potential of Iran accessing nuclear weapons, Tel Aviv can easily win internal (and even some external) support for an attack on Iranian nuclear sites. Just to be sure, I have no doubt that Israel has no real reason to fear an Iranian nuke. But the reason Israel would venture into such dangerous waters is not that, but rather the political bargaining chip that such an attack will bring for Israel.
What happens upon an Israeli attack on Iran? Iran will immediately activate its proxies in the Israeli neighbourhood and against American forces in Iraq and Afghanistan. Iran might even retaliate against US forces in Iraq and Afghanistan through direct engagement in combat. This will inevitably force the US to engage in active warfare with Iran as it will be difficult to justify inaction to the American public. So whether or not US want it, it will become US-Israeli war against Iran. And Israel knows this very well.
There are only two ways this inevitable progression of events after an Israeli attack can be stopped: 1. US immediately announces that she does not support Israel’s action and will not support Israel (and Iranians believing it), or 2. Iranian regime deciding to refrain from any retaliation in any shape or form. Both scenarios are highly unlikely.
If Tel Aviv attacks, the US will continue losing its remaining moral and political credibility in front of the rest of the world while engaging in a never-ending, crazy-expensive battle with Iran. Tel Aviv, however, will be gaining political momentum for its victimhood status. Israel will come under intense and possibly real threats from Iran and its allies and proxies in the region. While this threat is unlikely to be large enough to pose any serious threat to the physical existence of the State of Israel, it will save Tel Aviv from domestic and international political demise.
Ps: I wrote this article over the weekend, but did not get a chance to review and post it online. In the meantime the Basijies, the Iranian youth militia, stormed the British embassy in Tehran. London called back all diplomats and gave Iranian diplomats in London 48 hours to leave the country. Germany called back her ambassador for “consultations.” And Norway closed its embassy in Tehran for “security reasons.” The Iranian government claims that they were “unable” to control these “students,” which is hard to believe given how efficient the Iranian police and army were in controlling millions of Iranians who took to the street after the June 2009 elections to protest the results. But what is significant about all of this is that the terrain is becoming more and more conducive of an attack on Iran. I can only hope that the Iranian government and its Israeli/US counterparts come to reason and avoid another human disaster from happening. May war never be waged on any people!
